WON Case WON Al Qanah 1-0 Aswan
Fixture Case File · Ref V
A

Al Qanah

Home Side
D L W W W
6W 3D 1L → Holding Steady
VS
1-0
A
Aswan
Away Side
L L D L D
1W 3D 6L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
47%
Thursday, 30th April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Al Qanah to win
Al Qanah 50%
Draw 30%
Aswan 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob80%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-33%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBA<<Q<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<A<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<D56F2A4384DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 30 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
1
Al Qanah
3
Draws
0
Aswan
4
Meetings
1.5
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Al Qanah won 1 of the last 4 meetings (3 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Qanah
Metric
Aswan
1.6
Goals For / Game
0.6
0.6
Goals Against / Game
1.6
50%
Clean Sheets
20%
6-3-1
W — D — L
1-3-6
Win Rate
60%
10%
2.2
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A0
0-0 11.1%
0-1 6.7%
0-2 2.0%
0-3 0.4%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
A1
1-0 17.7%
1-1 10.6%
1-2 3.2%
1-3 0.6%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
A2
2-0 14.2%
2-1 8.5%
2-2 2.6%
2-3 0.5%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
A3
3-0 7.6%
3-1 4.5%
3-2 1.4%
3-3 0.3%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 3.0%
4-1 1.8%
4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 1.0%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(17.7%) 2-0(14.2%) 2-1(8.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Al Qanah Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Aswan Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Al Qanah
Overall
6.9
Scoring
5.3
Defence
8.0
Aswan
Overall
1.9
Scoring
2.0
Defence
4.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 27%
Home Win & BTTS No 33%
Draw & BTTS Yes 14%
Draw & BTTS No 17%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 5%
Away Win & BTTS No 6%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 24%
Home Win & Under 2.5 36%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 18%
Away Win & Over 2.5 4%
Away Win & Under 2.5 6%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
12.12.25D2A
Aswan SC0
Al Qanah2
21.02.25D2A
Al Qanah0
Aswan SC0
28.10.24D2A
Aswan SC1
Al Qanah1
29.11.23D2A
Al Qanah1
Aswan SC1
Recent Form
Al Qanah
23.04.26D2A
Maleyeit Kafr El Zayiat1
Al Qanah1
D
16.04.26D2A
Al Qanah1
El Daklyeh2
L
10.04.26D2A
Al Qanah2
Baladiyat El Mahalla1
W
03.04.26D2A
Masar0
Al Qanah2
W
27.03.26D2A
Al Qanah4
Al-Sekka1
W
12.03.26D2A
El-Entag El-Harby1
Al Qanah1
D
06.03.26D2A
Al Qanah3
Abu Qir Semad0
W
26.02.26D2A
Tanta0
Al Qanah1
W
12.02.26D2A
Al Qanah1
Asyut Petroleum0
W
05.02.26D2A
El Mansoura0
Al Qanah0
D
Aswan
23.04.26D2A
Aswan SC0
Masar2
L
16.04.26D2A
Al-Sekka2
Aswan SC1
L
09.04.26D2A
Aswan SC2
El-Entag El-Harby2
D
02.04.26D2A
Abu Qir Semad3
Aswan SC0
L
26.03.26D2A
Aswan SC0
Tanta0
D
12.03.26D2A
Asyut Petroleum3
Aswan SC1
L
06.03.26D2A
Aswan SC1
El Mansoura0
W
27.02.26D2A
Raya2
Aswan SC0
L
12.02.26D2A
Aswan SC1
Tersana1
D
06.02.26D2A
La Viena1
Aswan SC0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Thursday, 30th April 2026, Al Qanah host Aswan in Egypt Division 2 A. Our analysis desk recommends Al Qanah to win as the standout selection.

Al Qanah arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Aswan are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 3D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Qanah, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Aswan's 0, with 3 draws from 4 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: al qanah to win at odds of 1.25 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Egypt Division 2 A game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.25. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 30 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Qanah vs Aswan?
Our selection is 1 — Al Qanah to win, priced at approximately 1.25. Tip confidence rating: 47%.
What is Al Qanah's current form?
Al Qanah have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Aswan been performing recently?
Aswan have recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Qanah lead with 1 wins versus Aswan's 0, with 3 draws across 4 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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