Fixture Case File · Ref V
D

Djoliba

Home Side
W D W W W
7W 3D 0L → Holding Steady
VS
U
US Bougouni
Away Side
D L D L W
1W 3D 6L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
59%
Tuesday, 28th April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Djoliba to win
Djoliba 50%
Draw 30%
US Bougouni 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob87%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-28%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBD<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<US<B<<<<<<<<<<<<<144C4CE2B4DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 28 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Djoliba to win
1.15
Under 2.5 Goals65% BTTS — No75% Djoliba Clean Sheet80%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Djoliba vs US Bougouni Competition: Mali Premiere Division Date: Tuesday, 28th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Djoliba to win) Odds: 1.15 Confidence: 59% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: BTTS — No (75%) Also: Djoliba Clean Sheet (80%) Ledger Ref: 144C4CE2B
Head to Head
Record
5
Djoliba
1
Draws
2
US Bougouni
8
Meetings
2.4
Avg Goals
25%
BTTS
38%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Djoliba won 5 of the last 8 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Djoliba
Metric
US Bougouni
1.7
Goals For / Game
0.4
0.2
Goals Against / Game
1.4
80%
Clean Sheets
30%
7-3-0
W — D — L
1-3-6
Win Rate
70%
10%
1.9
Avg Goals
55%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
25%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
U0
U1
U2
U3
U4
U5
D0
0-0 15.7%
0-1 4.7%
0-2 0.7%
0-3 0.1%
0-4 0.0%
0-5 0.0%
D1
1-0 24.4%
1-1 7.3%
1-2 1.1%
1-3 0.1%
1-4 0.0%
1-5 0.0%
D2
2-0 18.9%
2-1 5.7%
2-2 0.9%
2-3 0.1%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
D3
3-0 9.8%
3-1 2.9%
3-2 0.4%
3-3 0.0%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
D4
4-0 3.8%
4-1 1.1%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
D5
5-0 1.2%
5-1 0.4%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(24.4%) 2-0(18.9%) 3-0(9.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing D=Home goals ↓   U=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Djoliba Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
US Bougouni Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Djoliba
Overall
7.9
Scoring
5.7
Defence
9.3
US Bougouni
Overall
1.9
Scoring
1.3
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 16%
Home Win & BTTS No 48%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 20%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 2%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 22%
Home Win & Under 2.5 42%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 18%
Away Win & Over 2.5 3%
Away Win & Under 2.5 6%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
27.12.25PD
US Bougouni0
Djoliba2
09.03.25PD
US Bougouni1
Djoliba0
30.01.25PD
Djoliba2
US Bougouni0
04.02.24PD
US Bougouni2
Djoliba2
02.11.23PD
Djoliba1
US Bougouni2
27.05.23PD
US Bougouni0
Djoliba2
05.12.22PD
Djoliba2
US Bougouni0
31.05.17PD
Djoliba3
US Bougouni0
Recent Form
Djoliba
15.04.26PD
Djoliba1
Onze Createurs0
W
05.04.26PD
Djoliba0
Stade Malien0
D
29.03.26PD
Djoliba1
Korofina0
W
18.03.26PD
Bougouba1
Djoliba3
W
08.03.26PD
Derby Academie0
Djoliba2
W
04.03.26PD
Real Bamako1
Djoliba1
D
28.02.26PD
Djoliba4
Foot Elite0
W
22.02.26PD
Djoliba0
Diarra0
D
18.02.26PD
Binga0
Djoliba1
W
15.02.26CON
Djoliba4
San Pedro0
W
US Bougouni
15.04.26PD
US Bougouni0
Foot Elite0
D
04.04.26PD
Korofina2
US Bougouni1
L
17.03.26PD
US Bougouni1
Real Bamako1
D
07.03.26PD
Diarra1
US Bougouni0
L
27.02.26PD
Binga0
US Bougouni1
W
07.02.26PD
US Bougouni0
Bakaridjan2
L
31.01.26PD
USFAS Bamako3
US Bougouni0
L
24.01.26PD
US Bougouni0
Mali Coura3
L
21.01.26PD
US Bougouni0
Derby Academie0
D
16.01.26PD
Onze Createurs2
US Bougouni1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 28th April 2026, Djoliba host US Bougouni in Mali Premiere Division. Our analysis desk recommends Djoliba to win as the standout selection.

Djoliba arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

US Bougouni are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 3D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Djoliba, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to US Bougouni's 2, with 1 draws from 8 encounters. Both teams have scored in 25% of those meetings.

Our verdict: djoliba to win at odds of 1.15 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Mali Premiere Division game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.15. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 28 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Djoliba vs US Bougouni?
Our selection is 1 — Djoliba to win, priced at approximately 1.15. Tip confidence rating: 59%.
What is Djoliba's current form?
Djoliba have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has US Bougouni been performing recently?
US Bougouni have recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Djoliba lead with 5 wins versus US Bougouni's 2, with 1 draws across 8 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 25%.
⚠️
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