WON Case WON Krasnodar 2-1 Dynamo Makhachkala
Fixture Case File · Ref V
K

Krasnodar

Home Side
W D D D W
6W 3D 1L ▼ Trending Down
VS
2-1
D
Dynamo Makhachkala
Away Side
D L D D L
3W 3D 4L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
61%
Sunday, 26th April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Krasnodar to win
Krasnodar 50%
Draw 30%
Dynamo Makhachkala 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob71.9%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-10.9%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBK<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<D<<<<<<M<<<<<<<<<0336071014DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 26 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
4
Krasnodar
1
Draws
0
Dynamo Makhachkala
5
Meetings
2.8
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
40%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Krasnodar won 4 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Krasnodar
Metric
Dynamo Makhachkala
2.2
Goals For / Game
1
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.2
50%
Clean Sheets
20%
6-3-1
W — D — L
3-3-4
Win Rate
60%
30%
2.6
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
D0
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
K0
0-0 7.8%
0-1 6.6%
0-2 2.8%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
K1
1-0 13.3%
1-1 11.3%
1-2 4.8%
1-3 1.4%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
K2
2-0 11.3%
2-1 9.6%
2-2 4.1%
2-3 1.2%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.0%
K3
3-0 6.4%
3-1 5.4%
3-2 2.3%
3-3 0.7%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
K4
4-0 2.7%
4-1 2.3%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
K5
5-0 0.9%
5-1 0.8%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(13.3%) 2-0(11.3%) 2-1(9.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing K=Home goals ↓   D=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Krasnodar Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Dynamo Makhachkala Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Krasnodar
Overall
6.9
Scoring
7.3
Defence
7.7
Dynamo Makhachkala
Overall
3.9
Scoring
3.3
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Home Win & BTTS No 25%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Away Win & BTTS No 13%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 25%
Home Win & Under 2.5 25%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 13%
Away Win & Over 2.5 13%
Away Win & Under 2.5 13%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
18.10.25PL
Dynamo Makhachkala0
Krasnodar2
27.06.25CF
Krasnodar4
Dynamo Makhachkala1
25.04.25PL
Dynamo Makhachkala2
Krasnodar3
28.07.24PL
Krasnodar0
Dynamo Makhachkala0
29.06.24CF
Krasnodar2
Dynamo Makhachkala0
Recent Form
Krasnodar
23.04.26PL
Spartak Moscow1
Krasnodar2
W
19.04.26PL
Krasnodar2
Baltika2
D
12.04.26PL
Zenit1
Krasnodar1
D
08.04.26CUP
Dynamo Moscow0
Krasnodar0
D
04.04.26PL
Akhmat Grozny0
Krasnodar1
W
28.03.26CF
Krasnodar4
Amkal Moscow0
W
21.03.26PL
Krasnodar5
Pari NN0
W
17.03.26CUP
Krasnodar4
CSKA Moscow0
W
14.03.26PL
Sochi1
Krasnodar2
W
08.03.26PL
Rubin Kazan2
Krasnodar1
L
Dynamo Makhachkala
23.04.26PL
Akron Togliatti1
Dynamo Makhachkala1
D
19.04.26PL
Dynamo Makhachkala0
Zenit1
L
12.04.26PL
Lokomotiv Moscow1
Dynamo Makhachkala1
D
05.04.26PL
Dynamo Makhachkala2
Baltika2
D
21.03.26PL
CSKA Moscow3
Dynamo Makhachkala1
L
18.03.26CUP
Zenit1
Dynamo Makhachkala0
L
13.03.26PL
Dynamo Makhachkala1
Orenburg0
W
08.03.26PL
Krylya Sovetov2
Dynamo Makhachkala0
L
04.03.26CUP
FK Rostov0
Dynamo Makhachkala2
W
28.02.26PL
Dynamo Makhachkala2
Rubin Kazan1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Sunday, 26th April 2026, Krasnodar host Dynamo Makhachkala in Russia Premier League. Our analysis desk recommends Krasnodar to win as the standout selection.

Krasnodar arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Dynamo Makhachkala are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 3D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Krasnodar, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Dynamo Makhachkala's 0, with 1 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: krasnodar to win at odds of 1.39 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Russia Premier League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.39. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 26 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Krasnodar vs Dynamo Makhachkala?
Our selection is 1 — Krasnodar to win, priced at approximately 1.39. Tip confidence rating: 61%.
What is Krasnodar's current form?
Krasnodar have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Dynamo Makhachkala been performing recently?
Dynamo Makhachkala have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Krasnodar lead with 4 wins versus Dynamo Makhachkala's 0, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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