WON Case WON Drochtersen/Assel 3-1 Altona
Fixture Case File · Ref V
D

Drochtersen/Assel

Home Side
D W L W L
7W 1D 2L ▲ Trending Up
VS
3-1
A
Altona
Away Side
W L L L L
3W 1D 6L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
59%
Sunday, 26th April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Drochtersen/Assel to win
Drochtersen/Assel 50%
Draw 30%
Altona 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob81.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-22.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBD<<<<<<<<<<<A<<<<<<<<<A<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<59E16F4FF4DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 26 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Drochtersen/Assel to win
1.23
Over 2.5 Goals85% Over 1.5 Goals95% BTTS — Yes75%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Drochtersen/Assel vs Altona Competition: Germany Regionalliga North Date: Sunday, 26th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Drochtersen/Assel to win) Odds: 1.23 Confidence: 59% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (85%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%) Also: BTTS — Yes (75%) Ledger Ref: 59E16F4FF
Head to Head
Record
5
Drochtersen/Assel
1
Draws
2
Altona
8
Meetings
2.6
Avg Goals
63%
BTTS
63%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Drochtersen/Assel won 5 of the last 8 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Drochtersen/Assel
Metric
Altona
2.6
Goals For / Game
1.9
1.4
Goals Against / Game
3.1
10%
Clean Sheets
10%
7-1-2
W — D — L
3-1-6
Win Rate
70%
30%
4.5
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
75%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
D0
0-0 1.1%
0-1 1.8%
0-2 1.5%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
D1
1-0 3.2%
1-1 5.2%
1-2 4.3%
1-3 2.4%
1-4 1.0%
1-5 0.3%
D2
2-0 4.5%
2-1 7.4%
2-2 6.1%
2-3 3.4%
2-4 1.4%
2-5 0.5%
D3
3-0 4.3%
3-1 7.1%
3-2 5.8%
3-3 3.2%
3-4 1.3%
3-5 0.4%
D4
4-0 3.1%
4-1 5.0%
4-2 4.2%
4-3 2.3%
4-4 0.9%
4-5 0.3%
D5
5-0 1.7%
5-1 2.9%
5-2 2.4%
5-3 1.3%
5-4 0.5%
5-5 0.2%
Top Scores 2-1(7.4%) 3-1(7.1%) 3-2(5.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing D=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Drochtersen/Assel Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Altona Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Drochtersen/Assel
Overall
7.3
Scoring
8.7
Defence
5.3
Altona
Overall
3.3
Scoring
6.3
Defence
0.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 48%
Home Win & BTTS No 16%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 2%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 54%
Home Win & Under 2.5 10%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 1%
Away Win & Over 2.5 23%
Away Win & Under 2.5 4%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
11.10.25RL
Altona0
Drochtersen/Assel1
18.01.25CF
Drochtersen/Assel3
Altona2
29.01.22RL
Altona0
Drochtersen/Assel0
24.09.21RL
Drochtersen/Assel2
Altona1
29.11.19RL
Drochtersen/Assel0
Altona2
14.08.19RL
Altona2
Drochtersen/Assel1
15.04.18RL
Drochtersen/Assel2
Altona1
15.10.17RL
Altona1
Drochtersen/Assel3
Recent Form
Drochtersen/Assel
22.04.26RL
Hannoverscher SC2
Drochtersen/Assel2
D
18.04.26RL
Hannover II1
Drochtersen/Assel2
W
10.04.26RL
Drochtersen/Assel1
VfB Oldenburg3
L
29.03.26RL
Bremer2
Drochtersen/Assel3
W
21.03.26RL
Werder Bremen II1
Drochtersen/Assel0
L
17.03.26RL
Drochtersen/Assel4
Lohne1
W
14.03.26RL
Drochtersen/Assel3
SC Weiche-081
W
07.03.26RL
Phonix Lubeck0
Drochtersen/Assel2
W
27.02.26RL
Drochtersen/Assel5
Norderstedt1
W
22.02.26CF
St. Pauli II2
Drochtersen/Assel4
W
Altona
18.04.26RL
Altona3
Lohne2
W
15.04.26RL
Altona0
VfB Oldenburg4
L
11.04.26RL
Schoningen3
Altona2
L
02.04.26RL
Altona2
Jeddeloh7
L
28.03.26RL
Altona2
Hannover II4
L
22.03.26RL
Hamburger SV II4
Altona0
L
18.03.26RL
Altona1
Werder Bremen II1
D
14.03.26RL
Altona3
Hannoverscher SC0
W
07.03.26RL
Altona2
Lubeck3
L
24.02.26CF
Vorwarts-Wacker3
Altona4
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Sunday, 26th April 2026, Drochtersen/Assel host Altona in Germany Regionalliga North. Our analysis desk recommends Drochtersen/Assel to win as the standout selection.

Drochtersen/Assel arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Altona are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 1D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Drochtersen/Assel, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Altona's 2, with 1 draws from 8 encounters. Both teams have scored in 63% of those meetings.

Our verdict: drochtersen/assel to win at odds of 1.23 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Germany Regionalliga North game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.23. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 26 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Drochtersen/Assel vs Altona?
Our selection is 1 — Drochtersen/Assel to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 59%.
What is Drochtersen/Assel's current form?
Drochtersen/Assel have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Altona been performing recently?
Altona have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Drochtersen/Assel lead with 5 wins versus Altona's 2, with 1 draws across 8 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 63%.
⚠️
Bet Responsibly. DailyForebet provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.
18+Betting carries risk: debt, isolation, dependency. Predictions are for entertainment and informational purposes only, not financial advice.