WON Case WON Shanghai Shenhua 2-0 Qingdao Hainiu
Fixture Case File · Ref V
S

Shanghai Shenhua

Home Side
W W W D D
3W 4D 3L ▼ Trending Down
VS
2-0
Q
Qingdao Hainiu
Away Side
D D W L L
3W 3D 4L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
57%
Wednesday, 22nd April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Shanghai Shenhua to win
Shanghai Shenhua 50%
Draw 30%
Qingdao Hainiu 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob75.2%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-18.2%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBS<<<<<<<<S<<<<<<<<<<<<Q<<<<<<<H<<<<<<<<7865EDDE74DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 23 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
10
Shanghai Shenhua
0
Draws
0
Qingdao Hainiu
10
Meetings
2.2
Avg Goals
10%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Shanghai Shenhua won 10 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Shanghai Shenhua
Metric
Qingdao Hainiu
1.6
Goals For / Game
1.4
1.6
Goals Against / Game
1.7
0%
Clean Sheets
30%
3-4-3
W — D — L
3-3-4
Win Rate
30%
30%
3.2
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
Q0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
S0
0-0 4.3%
0-1 6.4%
0-2 4.8%
0-3 2.4%
0-4 0.9%
0-5 0.3%
S1
1-0 7.1%
1-1 10.6%
1-2 8.0%
1-3 4.0%
1-4 1.5%
1-5 0.5%
S2
2-0 5.8%
2-1 8.8%
2-2 6.6%
2-3 3.3%
2-4 1.2%
2-5 0.4%
S3
3-0 3.2%
3-1 4.8%
3-2 3.6%
3-3 1.8%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.2%
S4
4-0 1.3%
4-1 2.0%
4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.7%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
S5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(8.8%) 1-0(7.1%) 2-0(5.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing S=Home goals ↓   Q=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Shanghai Shenhua Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Qingdao Hainiu Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Shanghai Shenhua
Overall
4.2
Scoring
5.3
Defence
4.7
Qingdao Hainiu
Overall
3.9
Scoring
4.7
Defence
4.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 21%
Home Win & BTTS No 11%
Draw & BTTS Yes 24%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Away Win & BTTS No 11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 14%
Home Win & Under 2.5 18%
Draw & Over 2.5 17%
Draw & Under 2.5 20%
Away Win & Over 2.5 14%
Away Win & Under 2.5 17%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
23.08.25SL
Qingdao Hainiu0
Shanghai Shenhua2
16.04.25SL
Shanghai Shenhua3
Qingdao Hainiu2
28.09.24SL
Qingdao Hainiu0
Shanghai Shenhua1
15.05.24SL
Shanghai Shenhua2
Qingdao Hainiu0
07.11.23FAC
Qingdao Hainiu0
Shanghai Shenhua1
30.09.23SL
Shanghai Shenhua1
Qingdao Hainiu0
08.06.23SL
Qingdao Hainiu0
Shanghai Shenhua1
11.05.16FAC
Shanghai Shenhua5
Qingdao Hainiu0
08.07.15FAC
Qingdao Hainiu0
Shanghai Shenhua3
17.08.13SL
Shanghai Shenhua1
Qingdao Hainiu0
Recent Form
Shanghai Shenhua
18.04.26SL
Shanghai Shenhua3
Liaoning Tieren1
W
11.04.26SL
Shanghai Shenhua1
Shanghai Port0
W
05.04.26SL
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger2
Shanghai Shenhua3
W
21.03.26SL
Beijing Guoan1
Shanghai Shenhua1
D
14.03.26SL
Zhejiang Professional1
Shanghai Shenhua1
D
07.03.26SL
Shanghai Shenhua5
Dalian Yingbo3
W
17.02.26CL
Buriram2
Shanghai Shenhua0
L
10.02.26CL
Shanghai Shenhua0
Machida2
L
26.01.26CF
Rodina Moscow1
Shanghai Shenhua1
D
23.01.26CF
Dynamo Moscow2
Shanghai Shenhua2
D
Qingdao Hainiu
17.04.26SL
Qingdao Hainiu0
Qingdao West Coast0
D
12.04.26SL
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger1
Qingdao Hainiu1
D
04.04.26SL
Qingdao Hainiu1
Henan Songshan Longmen0
W
20.03.26SL
Qingdao Hainiu1
Zhejiang Professional4
L
15.03.26SL
Chengdu Rongcheng1
Qingdao Hainiu0
L
07.03.26SL
Yunnan Yukun3
Qingdao Hainiu1
L
22.11.25SL
Zhejiang Professional2
Qingdao Hainiu2
D
02.11.25SL
Qingdao Hainiu1
Wuhan Three Towns0
W
26.10.25SL
Beijing Guoan2
Qingdao Hainiu4
W
17.10.25SL
Qingdao Hainiu3
Shanghai Port4
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Wednesday, 22nd April 2026, Shanghai Shenhua host Qingdao Hainiu in China Super League. Our analysis desk recommends Shanghai Shenhua to win as the standout selection.

Shanghai Shenhua arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Qingdao Hainiu are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 3D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Shanghai Shenhua, who lead the head-to-head with 10 wins to Qingdao Hainiu's 0, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 10% of those meetings.

Our verdict: shanghai shenhua to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This China Super League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.33. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 23 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Hainiu?
Our selection is 1 — Shanghai Shenhua to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 57%.
What is Shanghai Shenhua's current form?
Shanghai Shenhua have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Qingdao Hainiu been performing recently?
Qingdao Hainiu have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Shanghai Shenhua lead with 10 wins versus Qingdao Hainiu's 0, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 10%.
⚠️
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