WON Case WON Ferencvaros 2-1 Puskas Academy
Fixture Case File ยท Ref V โšฝ
F

Ferencvaros

Home Side
W W D L W
8W 1D 1L โ†’ Holding Steady
VS
2-1
P
Puskas Academy
Away Side
L W D L L
3W 2D 5L โ†’ Holding Steady
โš‘
MODERATE
54%
Tuesday, 14th April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Ferencvaros to win
Ferencvaros 50%
Draw 30%
Puskas Academy 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob73.5%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-19.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBF<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<P<<<<<<A<<<<<<<<<EC7DF0C664DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst ยท Last checked 14 Apr 2026
โœ“ Data-Audited โœ“ Independently Checked
โšก
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 โ€” Ferencvaros to win
1.36
Over 1.5 Goals85%
๐Ÿ“‹ Case Slip / Combo Builder
Ferencvaros vs Puskas Academy Competition: Hungary NB 1 Date: Tuesday, 14th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Ferencvaros to win) Odds: 1.36 Confidence: 54% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Ledger Ref: EC7DF0C66
โš”
Head to Head
Record
3
Ferencvaros
3
Draws
4
Puskas Academy
10
Meetings
2.9
Avg Goals
80%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Ferencvaros won 3 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
๐Ÿ“Š
Stats Duel
Comparison
Ferencvaros
Metric
Puskas Academy
2.3
Goals For / Game
1.1
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.4
40%
Clean Sheets
20%
8-1-1
W โ€” D โ€” L
3-2-5
Win Rate
80%
30%
2.9
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
๐ŸŽฏ
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
F0
0-0 5.8%
0-1 5.8%
0-2 2.9%
0-3 1.0%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.1%
F1
1-0 10.7%
1-1 10.7%
1-2 5.4%
1-3 1.8%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
F2
2-0 9.9%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.0%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
F3
3-0 6.1%
3-1 6.1%
3-2 3.1%
3-3 1.0%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
F4
4-0 2.8%
4-1 2.8%
4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
F5
5-0 1.0%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(10.7%) 2-0(9.9%) 2-1(9.9%)
โ–  Best match โ–  Possible โ–  Low ยท โ–  Contradicts filing F=Home goals โ†“   P=Away โ†’
๐Ÿ“‰
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Ferencvaros Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Puskas Academy Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
๐Ÿ“ˆ
Team Ratings
Grades
Ferencvaros
Overall
8.3 โ–ฒ
Scoring
7.7 โ–ฒ
Defence
7.0 โ–ฒ
Puskas Academy
Overall
3.6 โ–ฒ
Scoring
3.7 โ–ฒ
Defence
5.3 โ–ฒ
๐Ÿ”€
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 35%
Home Win & BTTS No 29%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Away Win & BTTS No 11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 29%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 13%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
๐Ÿงฎ
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
โ€”
Kelly %
โ€”
Stake
โ€”
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
๐Ÿ”Ž How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter โ€” a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee โ€” it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

๐Ÿ“ Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds โ€” no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status โ€” nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
๐Ÿ“œ
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
30.11.25
OTP Bank Liga: Puskas Academy1
Ferencvaros2
16.08.25
OTP Bank Liga: Ferencvaros1
Puskas Academy2
03.05.25
OTP Bank Liga: Ferencvaros1
Puskas Academy1
09.02.25
OTP Bank Liga: Puskas Academy1
Ferencvaros0
29.09.24
OTP Bank Liga: Ferencvaros3
Puskas Academy0
17.03.24
OTP Bank Liga: Ferencvaros1
Puskas Academy1
26.11.23
OTP Bank Liga: Puskas Academy1
Ferencvaros1
01.11.23
Magyar Kupa: Ferencvaros4
Puskas Academy (AET)3
13.08.23
OTP Bank Liga: Ferencvaros1
Puskas Academy2
12.03.23
OTP Bank Liga: Ferencvaros1
Puskas Academy2
Recent Form
Ferencvaros
10.04.26
OTP Bank Liga: Ferencvaros3
Diosgyor (DVTK)1
W
05.04.26
OTP Bank Liga: Debrecen0
Ferencvaros2
W
22.03.26
OTP Bank Liga: Kisvarda1
Ferencvaros1
D
18.03.26
Europa League: Braga4
Ferencvaros0
L
12.03.26
Europa League: Ferencvaros2
Braga0
W
08.03.26
OTP Bank Liga: Nyiregyhaza1
Ferencvaros3
W
04.03.26
Magyar Kupa: Kazincbarcika0
Ferencvaros5
W
01.03.26
OTP Bank Liga: Ferencvaros2
Kazincbarcika1
W
26.02.26
Europa League: Ferencvaros2
Ludogorets0
W
23.02.26
OTP Bank Liga: MTK Budapest1
Ferencvaros3
W
Puskas Academy
10.04.26
OTP Bank Liga: Puskas Academy1
Gyor4
L
05.04.26
OTP Bank Liga: Diosgyor (DVTK)1
Puskas Academy2
W
22.03.26
OTP Bank Liga: Puskas Academy1
Debrecen1
D
06.03.26
OTP Bank Liga: Kisvarda1
Puskas Academy0
L
01.03.26
OTP Bank Liga: Puskas Academy1
Nyiregyhaza2
L
21.02.26
OTP Bank Liga: Kazincbarcika0
Puskas Academy2
W
14.02.26
OTP Bank Liga: MTK Budapest2
Puskas Academy2
D
08.02.26
OTP Bank Liga: Puskas Academy0
Zalaegerszeg1
L
31.01.26
OTP Bank Liga: Ujpest0
Puskas Academy1
W
24.01.26
OTP Bank Liga: Puskas Academy1
Paks2
L
๐Ÿ“
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 14th April 2026, Ferencvaros host Puskas Academy in Hungary NB 1. Our analysis desk recommends Ferencvaros to win as the standout selection.

Ferencvaros arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Puskas Academy are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Ferencvaros, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Puskas Academy's 4, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 80% of those meetings.

Our verdict: ferencvaros to win at odds of 1.36 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Hungary NB 1 game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.36. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 14 Apr 2026
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Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Ferencvaros vs Puskas Academy?
Our selection is 1 โ€” Ferencvaros to win, priced at approximately 1.36. Tip confidence rating: 54%.
What is Ferencvaros's current form?
Ferencvaros have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Puskas Academy been performing recently?
Puskas Academy have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Ferencvaros lead with 3 wins versus Puskas Academy's 4, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.
โš ๏ธ
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